A poll released Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, indicated that 9 percent of voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024 intend to vote for Democratic candidates in the midterm elections. In contrast, approximately 2 percent of voters who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 said they plan to vote for Republican candidates. The data, reported by Politico, suggests a shift in the coalition that supported the president two years ago.
The shift follows a term marked by several developments that the poll identifies as factors in voter disillusionment. These include the war in Iran, the high cost of living, and the administration’s deportation tactics. Among Hispanic Trump voters, identification with the MAGA movement fell from 56 percent at the end of last year to 37 percent in October 2026.
Turnout expectations among young voters have also decreased according to the data. At the end of last year, 50 percent of Trump voters aged 20 to 29 reported they were certain to vote in the midterms; by October, that figure dropped to 38 percent. President Trump addressed these trends on Monday, acknowledging that sitting presidents typically face challenges in midterm elections but stating his administration "gave this a very strong shot."
For some voters, these trends are tied to day-to-day experiences, such as the price of gasoline, which one strategist noted remains at $3.30 per gallon compared to a desired $2.50. Families affected by the administration’s immigration operations—referred to by a Texas strategist as "ICE picking up" relatives—have also reportedly moved away from the president's platform. These voters would see the impact of their choices in the composition of the next Congress, which will determine future tax policy and the continuation of the administration's current immigration and foreign policy initiatives.
The effects of these shifts may influence how both parties allocate resources in future cycles, particularly in Southern states where Republican officials expressed concern over the loss of Hispanic support. The results of the Nov. 3, 2026, election will determine if the Democratic party can capitalize on this 7-point net gain in "switchers" to regain control of legislative chambers. As of Election Day, the administration maintained that the president remains the party's best motivator, while the Republican National Committee stated it has fulfilled its promises to the public. Final outcomes will be known as votes are tallied following the close of polls on Tuesday night.