Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican nominee Mike Rogers by seven percentage points in the Michigan Senate race, according to a Susquehanna Polling and Research survey released Tuesday. The poll shows El-Sayed with 46 percent support compared to 39 percent for Rogers among likely voters. Nine percent of respondents remain undecided, while 4 percent favor a different candidate.
The survey follows a Democratic primary in which El-Sayed narrowly defeated Representative Haley Stevens (D-Mich.). Party members have noted the importance of El-Sayed securing support from groups that favored his primary opponent, specifically Black voters in Detroit and surrounding areas. In the 2024 presidential election, Michigan was decided by a one-percentage-point margin.
According to the data, El-Sayed holds a 62 percent to 24 percent lead over Rogers in Detroit and its neighboring Democratic-leaning communities. The poll also indicates that 91 percent of self-identified Democrats support El-Sayed, while 90 percent of self-identified Republicans support Rogers. Among independent voters, El-Sayed leads Rogers 46 percent to 24 percent.
Voters will notice the candidates' focus on economic concerns, as 34 percent of those surveyed identified inflation and the economy as their primary issue. Among this specific group, El-Sayed leads 47 percent to 38 percent. However, a significant portion of the electorate views both candidates unfavorably: 45 percent for El-Sayed and 37 percent for Rogers. Residents will likely see increased campaigning aimed at improving these favorability ratings—currently at 31 percent for El-Sayed and 28 percent for Rogers—before the November general election.
The survey highlights a specific dynamic among "double-negative" voters who disapprove of both candidates and President Trump's job performance; this group favors El-Sayed 26 percent to 15 percent. The outcome will set a precedent for whether a candidate running on a populist progressive platform can maintain a coalition of traditional Democratic voting blocks, such as those in Detroit, in a state that recently flipped parties in the presidential contest. The general election is scheduled for November 2026.
The poll was conducted between August 11 and August 17 among 800 likely voters. Both candidates continue to campaign across the state ahead of the general election to fill the vacancy left by Peters. Admission of the poll's findings comes as both parties analyze voter consolidation following the primary season.