A new poll by the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, indicates that California voters are divided over Proposition 40, a ballot initiative known as the Billionaire Tax Act. The survey, released Friday, found that 48 percent of respondents support the measure, 41 percent oppose it, and 11 percent remain undecided. The proposal is scheduled to appear on the state ballot in November.
The initiative follows a period of public debate regarding state tax policy. Proposition 40 has received endorsements from the California Democratic Party and is supported by Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Governor Gavin Newsom (D) previously stated he believed the measure would be defeated, though he has expressed support for a national billionaire tax and an "economic reset."
According to the poll of 4,207 respondents, support is highest in Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area at 40 percent. Opposition is more concentrated in the Central Valley, Orange County, and the North Coast/Sierras region. The survey also found high awareness of the measure, with 72 percent of voters stating they had heard of it prior to the start of general election campaigning.
The outcome will affect the financial obligations of the state’s wealthiest residents and potentially influence state revenue levels. Voters will notice the impact of this decision when they cast their ballots in November. The poll indicates a sharp partisan divide: 70 percent of Democrats support the measure, compared to 12 percent of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, 50 percent are in favor, while 39 percent are opposed. This suggests that the measure's success may depend on the voting behavior of the 11 percent who remain undecided and the effectiveness of campaign spending.
Opponents of the initiative reportedly plan to spend heavily on advertisements and outreach to defeat the measure in the coming months. The high level of public awareness reported in the survey—exceeding 70 percent across all political affiliations—suggests that the issue is already a significant factor in the state's political environment. Following the November vote, the state will determine whether to implement the collection of these one-time funds or maintain the current tax structure for high-net-worth individuals. The survey, conducted August 3-9, carries a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.