A Marquette Law School Poll released Wednesday shows Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany tied at 44 percent each among registered voters in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race. With 12 percent of respondents remaining undecided, the survey indicates a close contest for the seat being vacated by retiring Governor Tony Evers (D).
The results follow recent primary elections where both candidates secured their respective parties' nominations. Crowley won the Democratic primary earlier this month after defeating Francesca Hong, while Tiffany won the Republican primary several weeks ago. Following these results, the political handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its rating of the race from a "toss-up" to "leans Democratic."
Among the subset of likely voters surveyed, the poll found a different distribution, with Crowley leading Tiffany 49 percent to 44 percent, while 7 percent of respondents were undecided. The data was collected between August 12 and August 20, 2026, surveying a total of 891 registered voters and 738 likely voters.
The scale of this competition is reflected in the narrow margins: among registered voters, the candidates are separated by zero percentage points, which falls well within the poll's 4 percentage point margin of error. For a typical household, the outcome of this race will eventually result in concrete changes to state-level tax rates, school funding, and legal rights, though the specific policy differences between Crowley and Tiffany were not detailed in the report. Residents will notice the intensity of this tie through a likely increase in campaign advertisements and outreach efforts as both parties attempt to capture the undecided 7 to 12 percent of the electorate.
The dead heat in this gubernatorial contest may also influence broader national political strategies, as Wisconsin is identified as a presidential swing state. Political analysts and donor groups often use these metrics to decide where to allocate financial resources, which can impact the volume of spending in related local and legislative races. What happens next depends on upcoming campaign milestones and the general election; however, the source does not provide specific dates for future debates or the final voting deadline. Voters will continue to see updated polling data as the candidates move toward the November election.