Democratic candidates are leading their Republican opponents in three competitive Texas House races, according to a survey released Wednesday by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy and Research and Survey Center. The poll focused on the 15th, 28th, and 34th Congressional Districts, all of which are located in South Texas and have a majority of Latino residents.
The surveys come as both major parties compete for control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the upcoming November midterm elections. Currently, Republicans hold a six-seat majority in the chamber. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report currently rates the 15th District as "Lean R," the 28th District as "Lean D," and the 34th District as a "Toss Up."
In the 15th District, Democrat Bobby Pulido holds a 5-point lead over incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R), 50 percent to 45 percent. In the 34th District, Rep. Vincente Gonzalez (D) leads Republican Eric Flores by 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent. In the 28th District, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) leads Republican Tano Tijerina 45 percent to 34 percent, though pollsters noted 40 percent of voters in that district were unfamiliar with Tijerina.
The poll indicates specific challenges for Republican candidates in these majority-Latino districts, as more than half of the surveyed likely voters expressed a negative view of President Trump’s job performance. Additionally, the Democratic Senate candidate, James Talarico, leads Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in all three districts. For the individual voter, these trends suggest that national party identity and views on top-of-ticket leaders may influence local representation and federal benefits or services administered through these congressional offices.
The survey of 700 likely voters in both the 15th and 34th Districts has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points, while the 600 voters surveyed in the 28th District have a 4-point margin of error. As the November midterm election approaches, these districts remain central to the national battle for House leadership. The next major step for these candidates and voters will be the general election in November, which will finalize the composition of the lower chamber of Congress.