A new survey of likely voters in Pennsylvania shows incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) holding a 16-point lead over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity. The poll, conducted by The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena University, found that 55 percent of respondents support Shapiro, while 39 percent support Garrity, the current state Treasurer. Six percent of those surveyed did not choose either candidate or declined to answer.
The survey results follow Shapiro's 2022 gubernatorial victory, where he defeated Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano by nearly 15 points. Since taking office, Shapiro has maintained a national profile, serving as a finalist for the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nomination and expressing interest in participating in future party debates regarding the direction of the Democratic Party.
According to the data, Shapiro leads across several demographic categories, including men, women, white voters, and Black voters. He also holds a lead in all four age groups tracked: 18-29, 30-44, 45-64, and 65-plus. The survey noted a 34-point advantage for Shapiro among college-educated voters and a 4-point lead among those without a degree. While Garrity leads by 5 points among white voters without a college degree, Shapiro holds a 72-point lead among nonwhite voters without a degree.
The scale of the polling suggests that Shapiro's support is broad-based across the state's diverse geography and economy. With 55 percent of likely voters favoring the incumbent, the current data implies that a majority of households surveyed support the governor's management of state services, health care policies, and the state budget. For the 39 percent of respondents backing Garrity, the results highlight a preference for a change in leadership at the state capital in Harrisburg. These voters may prioritize different approaches to the state treasury and fiscal management, which could eventually impact state-level taxes or the funding of public institutions if the margin narrows before the actual election.