New polling released in early October 2026 indicates a shift in political preference among Latino voters ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. A survey conducted by NBC News and Telemundo found that 59% of registered Latino voters prefer Democrats to control Congress, while 35% favor Republican control. The 24-point margin is double the 12-point advantage Democrats held with this group at a similar point in 2024.
The data follows the 2024 presidential election, in which the Latino vote was a significant factor in Donald Trump’s victory. Exit polls from that year showed Trump receiving 46% of the Latino vote to Kamala Harris’s 51%, a substantial narrowing from President Biden’s 25-point victory with the demographic in 2020. Republicans had built their 2026 strategies, including redistricting efforts in Texas and Florida, on the assumption that these gains would persist.
According to the NBC News/Telemundo poll of 800 registered Latino voters, 69% disapprove of President Trump’s performance, and 62% hold a negative view of the Republican Party. Sentiment toward the Democratic Party remains mixed, with 41% holding a positive view and 42% a negative one. While Latino men supported Trump by 10 points in 2024, the new survey shows they now prefer Democratic congressional control by a 14-point margin, 53% to 39%.
Economic concerns and immigration enforcement are primary drivers of these shifts. The survey found 78% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, with 65% stating his policies have negatively affected economic conditions. Additionally, 67% of respondents said Trump’s immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far. Personal impacts were also noted, as 27% of respondents reported knowing someone detained or deported by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the last two years.
The scale of the reported dissatisfaction is highlighted by the finding that one in seven Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 now say they want Democrats to take control of Congress. Voters indicated that inflation and the cost of living are their most important issues, with Democrats now holding a 21-point advantage on handling the economy—a reversal from Trump’s 4-point edge over Harris in 2024. A separate CBS News/YouGov poll found similar results, with 70% of registered voters overall attributing higher grocery prices to Trump’s policies.
Day-to-day, Latino communities report increased anxiety regarding immigration policy, with 31% of respondents stating they or someone close to them now carry identification specifically due to concerns about ICE. Furthermore, 17% of respondents indicated they or someone close to them are considering not voting in person due to fears of enforcement actions. These factors may influence actual voter turnout, which analysts note is a distinct metric from polling preference. The midterm elections will take place in November 2026, where these shifting sentiments will be tested at the ballot box.