A new survey of Hispanic business owners in Texas indicates a shift in political support ahead of the U.S. Senate election. The poll, conducted by the U.S. Hispanic Business Council (USHBC), found that Democratic nominee and state Rep. James Talarico holds a seven-point lead over Republican nominee and Attorney General Ken Paxton among the group. This comes despite a plurality of the 1,012 respondents self-identifying as Republicans.
The shift follows increased immigration enforcement under the Trump administration. One in five Hispanic business owners surveyed reported having an employee deported within the last year, and 70% expressed a negative view of workforce immigration raids. Additionally, seven in ten respondents said their businesses have been affected by federal tariffs. While Trump won the Hispanic vote in Texas by 10 points in 2024, recent polling from the New York Times/Siena shows Talarico leading Paxton by 32 points among Hispanic voters statewide.
Local business owners in South Texas report that enforcement actions, such as detaining workers at construction sites and pulling over company vehicles, have disrupted operations. Benny Melendez, a construction company owner who voted for Trump in 2024, stated that more than 10 of his workers have been deported since the start of 2025. Mario Guerrero of the South Texas Builders Association noted that the labor shortage is acute in industries like concrete pouring, where he said American citizens are often unwilling to work in extreme heat.
Attorney General Ken Paxton’s campaign defended his record, citing his support for tax cuts and his opposition to Talarico’s platform. Paxton spokesperson Madison Cercy stated that Hispanic voters prioritize lower taxes and a strong economy, characterizing Talarico’s record as "radical." Meanwhile, Talarico has campaigned on a platform of supporting small businesses and addressing high costs and what he describes as "failed immigration policies."
For the individuals involved, the impact is felt through labor shortages and increased operational fear. Small-business owners in industries like retail, food services, and manufacturing report that federal tariffs and immigration raids are directly affecting their bottom lines. In South Texas, construction executives reported to federal officials in February that enforcement actions had initially subsided before increasing again last month. The daily reality for these workers and owners involves increased law enforcement presence at job sites and on roads, which business leaders say complicates basic tasks like transporting equipment.
The political outcome of this shift could determine control of a U.S. Senate seat in a race currently polling as a dead heat. Beyond the candidates, the trend sets a precedent for how interior immigration enforcement impacts local economies and partisan loyalty in historically Democratic strongholds that recently moved toward the GOP. The next major milestone for this group will be the general election, where the 32-point lead Talarico currently holds among Hispanic voters will be tested against Paxton’s efforts to frame the race around economic deregulation and social issues.