A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted in October 2026 shows a statistically tied race for the U.S. Senate in Texas between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. The survey indicates that while Paxton benefits from a Republican-leaning electorate, Talarico is drawing support from voters concerned about the cost of living and those who view him as having stronger personal character.
The poll of 1,492 registered voters found that voter turnout will be a factor in the final weeks of the campaign. Talarico currently benefits from a higher percentage of Democrats stating they will definitely vote, though the survey notes that an increase in Republican turnout could shift the dynamic. In a separate state race, incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott maintains an edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
Economic factors are a driver for Talarico, who leads Paxton among voters who say they have been negatively affected by higher prices. However, Paxton maintains support among voters who want to support Donald Trump or oppose Talarico. The poll also found that nearly half of voters view Talarico as "very liberal," a group that overwhelmingly backs Paxton, while Paxton benefits from support in Texas for a federal deportation program.
The contest involves shifts among specific demographics. According to the poll, most Latino voters now back Talarico, citing economic hardship and concerns over Paxton's character. Talarico is also relying on younger voters, though their historically lower turnout rates compared to older voters remain a factor. For Paxton, his backing includes support from those who want to support Trump and the majority of voters who support federal deportation policies.
The results of this election will determine who represents Texas in Washington, D.C. A Talarico victory would require maintaining his lead with independents and capturing a reported 5% of self-identified Republicans, while a Paxton victory would likely stem from higher GOP turnout and the state's traditional partisan lean. The general election is scheduled for November 2026, with the candidates entering the final weeks of the campaign following the polling period of October 8-16.