A CBS News/YouGov poll indicates a close race for the U.S. Senate in Texas between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. The survey, conducted in October 2026, describes the contest as a toss-up, with Talarico drawing support from voters concerned about the cost of living while Paxton maintains a base among those seeking to support President Donald Trump.
The survey results highlight a divide in voter motivation. The majority of Paxton's supporters indicated they are backing him because he is the Republican nominee, to oppose Talarico, or to show support for President Trump. In contrast, Talarico's supporters cite his personal character and economic positions as primary factors. The poll found that 5% of self-identified Republicans and 9% of voters who say they "never vote for Democrats" intend to support Talarico.
Economic concerns remain a primary driver for the electorate, with a majority of respondents reporting they have been negatively affected by higher prices. Talarico holds a lead among voters who identify the cost of living as their top issue. Additionally, the poll shows a majority of Latino voters backing Talarico, citing economic hardships and concerns regarding Paxton's personal character.
The outcome of this race could shift the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. With the poll showing the candidates in a virtual tie within the 3.4% margin of error, the final result will likely depend on voter turnout. Talarico's success may depend on turnout among younger voters and securing a portion of independent voters to overcome the state’s larger Republican population. Conversely, Paxton relies on the state's Republican leanings and support for federal policies such as the Trump administration's deportation program, which the poll found receives more support in Texas than it does nationally. Partisans from both sides described the opposing candidate as a threat to their way of life.
The survey of 1,492 registered voters was conducted between October 8 and October 16, 2026. While the Senate race remains close, the same poll shows incumbent Governor Greg Abbott (R) holding a lead over challenger Gina Hinojosa (D) in the gubernatorial race. Election day will determine if Talarico’s strength with economic-focused voters and independents can offset the structural Republican advantage in the state. No specific election date was provided in the report.