A new Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll released on Monday, October 19, suggests the Green Party may not win any parliamentary seats in London at the next general election. The survey, conducted by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now, indicates that the Labour Party is positioned to win 59 or 60 of the 75 seats available in the capital. The findings follow a reported shift in voter support since July, according to the pollsters.
The polling data indicates a change in momentum since Andy Burnham became prime minister. According to the analysis, Labour's support in London has risen nine percentage points since July to reach 34 percent. During the same period, Green Party support dropped three points to 18 percent. This shift follows the Green Party's loss in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election last month, a seat the party had previously sought to win from Labour.
Specific projections from the poll suggest the Conservative Party could lose two seats in London, leaving them with a total of 16 percent support in the capital. The Liberal Democrats are projected to hold six seats in southwest London with 9 percent support, while Reform UK is projected to gain one seat, Bexleyheath and Crayford, currently held by Labour. Nationally, the poll projects a Labour majority of 56 seats in the House of Commons, with the Green Party projected to win four seats across the country.
The data indicates a consolidation of left-of-centre voters. Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, stated that the prime minister is taking votes from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens to re-establish Labour as a dominant force. For voters, this means a potential return to a single-party dominance in the capital, contrasting with the party's performance earlier in the year. A Green Party leader, Zack Polanski, also faces internal pressure; former leader Caroline Lucas and other senior figures have questioned his leadership following the by-election loss and a party conference motion regarding Zionism that led to Mr. Polanski being barred from entering Israel.
The specific timing for when these projections might be tested at the ballot box depends on the date of the next general election, which has not been reported. The polling data itself was collected from a sample of 6,699 people between September 25 and October 2. While these figures represent a snapshot of voter intent during that window, the final impact on representation will be determined by official election results. The next steps for the Green Party leadership remain unclear, though some party members have reportedly called for a change in leadership following the recent by-election results.