National polls released in late September 2026 show Democratic candidates holding a lead over Republicans in congressional midterm races. Data from NBC News, Emerson College, and a joint PBS News/NPR/Marist survey indicate that independent voters are favoring Democrats as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings reach new lows during his second term.
The shift in voter sentiment follows a period of rising costs and military conflict. While the president campaigned in 2024 on lowering prices and avoiding new wars, the United States has since entered a war with Iran. This conflict has resulted in higher gas and diesel prices, which has increased the cost of goods transported by long-haul trucking. Additionally, inflation is reported at 3.4%, up from 3% at the start of the president's term, partly attributed to his administration's tariff policies.
Recent polling data highlights the scale of the Democratic lead. A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll found 53% of registered voters favor Democrats compared to 41% for Republicans, with independent voters favoring Democrats by 25 points. An Emerson College survey conducted September 21-22, 2026, reported a similar 53% to 42% split. Furthermore, Trump’s national approval rating has fallen to 32% according to Reuters, with NBC reporting his approval among independents at 26%.
For the average household, these political shifts are tied to concrete changes in affordability. With inflation at 3.4% and fuel prices rising due to the Iran war, 34% of voters say their family finances have worsened over the past year. In households earning under $50,000, 44% report experiencing financial hardship. Voters will likely notice these economic pressures in their grocery bills and at the gas pump as they decide whether to maintain the current Republican control or shift power to Democrats, who have centered their campaign on lowering the cost of living.
The outcome of the November midterms will determine which party controls the House and Senate, directly impacting future policy on tariffs, the Iran war, and federal spending. While the president's party typically loses an average of 27 House seats and three Senate seats in midterms, Republicans face additional pressure from record-setting retirements and primary defeats, with nearly one in five current lawmakers not returning for the next Congress. Absentee and mail-in voting have already begun in several states ahead of the November general election.
In response to the current political climate, some Republicans have begun to distance themselves from the administration's policies. Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers (R) and Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) have called for an end to the Iran war, citing concerns over diesel and grocery prices. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) stated that Democrats are focused on lowering the cost of living, while Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) predicted a "shellacking" for his party in the upcoming election.