Two national polls released this week show Democratic candidates holding leads over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot less than two months before the midterm elections. An Emerson College Polling survey released on Thursday, September 24, found that 53 percent of likely voters support Democrats compared to 42 percent for Republicans. A separate poll from PBS News/NPR/Marist published on Wednesday, September 23, reported a similar 53 percent to 41 percent margin in favor of Democrats among registered voters.
The results come as President Donald Trump serves his second term amid an ongoing war in Iran and the implementation of new tariff policies. Emerson College Polling noted that its previous survey last month showed a narrower 8-point lead for Democrats. The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll found that 70 percent of voters consider the president a factor in their congressional vote, with 45 percent of all registered voters and 54 percent of independents stating their vote is intended to express opposition to Trump.
Economic concerns, specifically regarding the Iran war and tariff policies, were cited as top issues by respondents in the Emerson survey. Inflation currently stands at 3.4 percent, and 34 percent of voters in the Marist poll reported that their family finances have worsened over the last year. Republican candidates, including Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers and Iowa Representative Ashley Hinson, have recently called for an end to the conflict in the Middle East, citing the impact of high prices on their constituents.
The poll results suggest a potential change in which party voters trust to manage their bills and benefits. The Marist poll found that 42 percent of voters now believe Democrats would better handle the economy, compared to 34 percent for Republicans. Additionally, the rate of incumbent turnover—with nearly one in five lawmakers not returning due to retirements or primary defeats—means the next Congress will feature a number of new representatives making decisions on healthcare and federal spending.
The momentum indicated in these surveys may set a precedent for how presidential influence affects midterm turnout. While 71 percent of self-identified MAGA supporters view their congressional vote as support for the president, 53 percent of overall voters "strongly disapprove" of his job performance. The next major milestones for these effects will be the November midterm elections. Early voting, including mail-in and absentee ballots, has already begun in several states, and the final composition of the House and Senate will be decided when polls close on Election Day.