New CNN polls released on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2026, show Democratic candidates leading in four battleground Senate races ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The data indicates Democrats hold advantages in Michigan and Texas that exceed the polls' margins of error, while maintaining leads in Maine and Kansas that are within the margins of error.
The surveys come as Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate. To gain control of the chamber, Democrats require a net gain of four seats. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 49% to 42%. In Texas, a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, Democrat James Talarico holds a 49% to 43% lead over Republican nominee Ken Paxton.
The polls, conducted by SSRS starting Oct. 20, also found Democrat Troy Jackson leading five-term Republican incumbent Susan Collins in Maine by 49% to 45%. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 45%. Additionally, Real Clear Politics averages show Democratic leads in North Carolina, Georgia, and Ohio. Poll respondents cited the cost of living and inflation as primary concerns, while President Donald Trump's job disapproval reached 66% in Michigan and 59% in Texas.
The outcome of these races determines which party sets the legislative agenda for the next two years. If the polling leads for candidates like Abdul El-Sayed and James Talarico hold, a transfer of Senate control would impact the confirmation of federal judges, the passage of tax legislation, and the oversight of executive agencies. Voters in Texas and Michigan are seeing an environment where traditional voting patterns are shifting; Texas voters, for example, backed Donald Trump by nearly 14 points in 2024 but now show a majority disapproving of his performance.
For many households, a change in Senate control could lead to shifts in federal policy regarding inflation and cost-of-living challenges, which were cited by poll respondents as their top concerns. A Democratic-led Senate would likely prioritize different economic relief measures than a Republican-led one, potentially affecting future tax rates or social program funding levels.
The next steps occur on Tuesday, Nov. 3, when voters go to the polls to finalize these contests. While these surveys show Democrats in a leading position, the results in Maine and Kansas remain within the margins of error, which range from 4.2 to 4.7 percentage points. Following the election, the certification of results will determine the official balance of power in the 100-seat chamber. In Alaska, the governor stated that election certification could be stopped due to a separate ongoing probe involving Rep. Mary Peltola.