Recent polling shows a close contest between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate in Texas. An NBC 5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group poll released on September 21, 2026, found Talarico leading Paxton 46 percent to 43 percent among registered voters. A separate survey by Overton Insights, conducted August 24–26, showed Talarico at 44 percent and Paxton at 43.6 percent, a margin of half a percentage point.
The results come as Democrats seek their first statewide victory in Texas since 1994. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan political handicapper, has rated the Senate race as a \"toss up.\" The state has historically been a challenge for Democrats; in the 2018 Senate race, then-incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) defeated Beto O'Rourke despite close polling, ultimately outperforming averages by approximately 4 percent.
The NBC 5/Telemundo survey, which interviewed 625 likely voters from September 8–10, reported that 8 percent of respondents remain undecided. Among Latino voters, the poll found Talarico leading Paxton 54 percent to 36 percent. In the gubernatorial race, Republican Governor Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa, with NBC 5 reporting a 48 percent to 41 percent margin and Overton Insights reporting a narrower 47 percent to 46 percent lead for the incumbent.
Significant financial resources are entering the Senate race. According to Federal Election Commission filings, President Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., recently allocated $5 million for television and digital advertising targeting Talarico. Additionally, the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund’s Texas affiliate has provided approximately $54 million to Paxton’s campaign.
Texas residents would see the most immediate impact of these polling trends through the increased volume of campaign advertising, fueled by the $59 million recently injected into the race by MAGA Inc. and the Senate Leadership Fund. Voters in the state report that their primary concerns are economic, with 24 percent citing jobs and 23 percent citing inflation and the cost of living. Hispanic voters specifically identified inflation as their top concern at 33 percent. These economic pressures, alongside immigration at 18 percent, are reported by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research as the factors most likely to influence what citizens see reflected in their future tax rates, healthcare access, and border policy.
The results also indicate a shift in public sentiment regarding specific local and social policies. A majority of surveyed Texans, 63 percent, expressed support for restrictions on gender transition-related medical treatments for minors, and 64 percent opposed the placement of automatic license plate readers at public intersections. Additionally, more than half of respondents supported local bans on the construction of data centers, an issue that has become a central point of debate between Abbott and Hinojosa. These findings set a precedent for how candidates may frame their platforms on infrastructure and privacy as the campaign continues toward the general election. The next major milestones include various campaign deadlines and the final vote in November.
WHCA refers to the White House Correspondents' Association, and NIH refers to the National Institutes of Health. a generic congressional ballot is a polling question that asks voters which party they would support rather than naming specific candidates.