Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition appears unlikely to secure a majority in the upcoming October 27 national elections, according to polling data released by Agam Labs and Hebrew University. The survey of 4,000 participants indicates that Netanyahu's current alliance of far-right and Haredi parties may fall short of the 61 seats required to control the 120-seat Knesset, Israel's parliament.
Israel utilizes a proportional representation system where voters select parties rather than individual candidates, and parties must meet a 3.25% threshold to enter parliament. Because no single party has ever won an outright majority, governments are formed through coalitions. The current government, led by Netanyahu’s Likud party, recently held 60 seats, while the opposition held 59, with one seat unaffiliated.
Polling projections suggest three primary outcomes. In one scenario, the right-wing bloc secures 52 to 54 seats, requiring them to recruit centrist groups like the Reservists and Economic Party to govern. A second scenario shows neither the right-wing nor the opposition reaching a majority, potentially necessitating an alliance with Arab parties. In a third possibility, no new parties clear the entry threshold, resulting in a deadlock that could trigger a new election cycle.
The scale of the potential shift is significant, as the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is projected to become the largest single group with 20 seats. However, even with this growth, the opposition may still lack a clear path to power. If the blocs cannot reach an agreement, the country could face a period of prolonged political instability similar to the cycle between 2019 and 2022, when Israel held five elections in three years. During such periods, a caretaker government remains in place, but its ability to initiate major new policies is typically restricted.
The immediate next steps involve the final days of campaigning before the vote on Tuesday, October 27. Under Israeli law, the publication of new election polls is prohibited after Friday, October 23, a ban that extends to social media and direct messaging. Once the votes are counted, parties will begin negotiations to seek a governing majority. If no leader can secure 61 seats, the Knesset will be dissolved, and a new election will be scheduled. Currently, Netanyahu remains in office as the head of the sitting government until a new coalition is sworn in.