Political parties emphasizing immigration and national identity are gaining electoral support across several European nations, according to recent polling and election data. In the United Kingdom, Reform UK has established its headquarters in the former offices of the Conservative Party, while in France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally leads polling ahead of the presidential election scheduled for April. Similar shifts are documented in Germany, where the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has secured significant gains in regional and national elections.
Established conservative parties are responding to these shifts by either adopting more restrictive positions on immigration or facing diminished voter support. Steve Baker, a former British Conservative government minister, told CBS News that political debate is realigning toward identity and nationalism rather than economic issues. While the European Commission projects EU economic growth to slow from 1.5% in 2025 to 1.1% in 2026, Baker attributed the political shift to a broader frustration with established institutions.
In Germany, the AfD has challenged the "firewall" (brandmauer) maintained by traditional parties that refuse to form coalitions with nationalist groups. The AfD won 43.8% of the vote in the state of Saxony-Anhalt in September, finishing ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at 17.2%. Nationally, the party won approximately 32% of the vote in eastern states and 18% in western Germany during the 2025 federal election, becoming the country's second-largest party.
In Britain, the Conservative Party lost power in 2024 after 14 years, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK capitalized on record net migration figures that reached nearly one million. Debate on the British right has recently centered on definitions of national identity. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has criticized efforts to define "Englishness" through ancestry alone, responding to Reform UK politician Suella Braverman’s statement that she does not consider herself English because she views it as an ethnicity.
For the average citizen, this political realignment translates into a push for more restrictive border controls and changes to how citizenship and national identity are legally and socially defined. In Germany, the AfD advocates for "remigration," which it defines as incentives for the return of foreigners legally required to leave, though security authorities have documented links between party figures and activists who support broader expulsions based on ancestry. In France, where 10% of adults identify as Muslim, the highest proportion in Western Europe, polling shows 73% of National Rally voters believe Islam is incompatible with French society, signaling potential shifts in secularism laws or social policy.
The movement is creating friction within international alliances and domestic legislative bodies. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has distanced herself from the AfD over its stance on the war in Ukraine, and France’s National Rally broke ties with the German party in 2024 following remarks by an AfD candidate regarding the Nazi SS. The next major test for this trend occurs in April, during the French presidential election. In Germany, AfD politicians like Tomasz Froelich suggest that if the party reaches 35% support nationally, the "firewall" preventing them from entering government will become impossible for mainstream parties to sustain.