A purported polling firm named Median Strategies announced this week that it fabricated survey results for two major political contests. The firm stated that its data regarding the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary and the Los Angeles mayoral race were not real, describing the releases as a "social experiment" designed to see how unverified information spreads through the political ecosystem.
The announcement follows recent concerns over polling accuracy after primary elections in Michigan and Wisconsin. The industry has faced ongoing scrutiny regarding public trust since 2016. Median Strategies, which was identified by The Guardian as being operated by 21-year-old recent college graduate Rahil Prakash, is not a member of established professional polling associations.
One fabricated poll showed Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) leading City Council member Nithya Raman (D) by 12 points, a figure Bass briefly shared on social media before the fraud was revealed. A second poll suggested Wisconsin state Rep. Francesca Hong led the Democratic gubernatorial primary by 20 points, though Hong subsequently lost that election. Prakash stated he did not place bets on these races via prediction markets and apologized to the affected campaigns.
In a separate incident this week, the polling aggregator FiftyPlusOne announced a permanent ban of one firm and the suspension of another. The action was taken due to a lack of disclosure regarding funding from Florida GOP gubernatorial candidate James Fishback’s campaign. One of those firms was also accused of fabricating data, a claim the firm has denied.
The incident highlights a lack of mandatory oversight in the polling industry, as firms like Median Strategies can operate without joining transparency initiatives. Experts from organizations like Verasight and the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion note that the public must now perform additional due diligence, such as checking for membership in the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s Transparency Initiative. This organization acts as a credentialing body for pollsters who disclose their methodologies, similar to a bar association for attorneys. Without such verification, voters risk being misled by "snapshots" of public opinion that do not exist.
The knock-on effects of these fabrications include increased skepticism toward legitimate polling data as the country approaches the November midterm elections. Industry analysts suggest that the rise of prediction markets, where individuals bet money on election outcomes, creates new financial incentives for bad actors to release false data to shift market prices. Moving forward, major polling aggregators like FiftyPlusOne are implementing stricter bans and disclosure requirements. Media outlets are also reportedly becoming more selective about which firms they cover, which may change which polls appear in news feeds and broadcasts ahead of upcoming election deadlines.