Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani is scheduled to visit Tehran on Thursday to mediate between the United States and Iran. The visit follows recent exchanges of accusations between Washington and Tehran regarding U.S. plans to expand economic sanctions to include Iran's international trading partners. Qatar has previously acted as a back-channel negotiator and assisted in brokering a brief ceasefire in June.
The diplomatic mission takes place as a military conflict, which began on February 28, nears its sixth month. While large-scale attacks have subsided, a formal diplomatic resolution has not been reached. A primary point of contention remains control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage for global energy markets that has been subject to blockades by both U.S. and Iranian forces.
Data from ship-tracking services indicates that oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 5 million barrels per day on Monday, a significant decline from the pre-war level of approximately 20 million barrels per day. The International Maritime Organization reports that 70 incidents have occurred in the waterway since late February, resulting in the deaths of 19 seafarers. The U.S. Central Command has not reported a military strike on Iran in nearly a month as Washington focuses on economic measures.
Conflict over the management of the strait persists. A spokesperson for Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi, stated on Wednesday that Iran and Oman had reached an acceptable agreement on revenue and transit. However, a senior Iranian source told Reuters that negotiations are still ongoing and an agreement has not been finalized. Mohebbi stated that the waterway would remain closed until the U.S. meets conditions from the June memorandum of understanding, including the removal of sanctions and the end of port blockades.
The outcome of these talks will determine the immediate economic environment for Iran's trading partners, who now face potential U.S. sanctions. For residents in the region, particularly in Iran and Lebanon where the source reports thousands have died since February, a diplomatic breakthrough could lead to a permanent end to hostilities that have already seen a one-month pause in U.S. aerial strikes. A successful negotiation would restore freedom of navigation and potentially end the dual blockades currently maintained by Washington and Tehran.
If the Qatari delegation fails to secure a return to the pre-February 28 status quo, the Strait of Hormuz may remain restricted, sustaining higher costs for global energy transport. The Revolutionary Guard's demand for the removal of U.S. sanctions and compensation sets a high threshold for the resumption of standard maritime traffic. The next key steps involve the meetings in Tehran on Thursday, where Sheikh Mohammed will present de-escalation proposals to Iranian officials. Specific deadlines for a new agreement have not been reported.