Parti Quebecois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon announced that the party will not hold a third independence referendum for Quebec while Donald Trump remains U.S. President. The decision follows a decline in support for Quebec sovereignty, which recent polling places at approximately 30%, a level analysts describe as the lowest in decades. Plamondon stated on Tuesday that the province’s political fate should not be influenced by "the upheaval of American politics."
The change in political strategy occurs as Quebec faces economic pressure from U.S. trade policies. In June of last year, the Trump administration implemented 50% tariffs on Canadian steel, significantly impacting the province's industrial sector. Quebec is currently scheduled to hold a provincial election by October 5, with the Parti Quebecois holding a narrow lead in current polls despite the shift in its referendum timeline.
At a steel factory near Montreal owned by The Heico Companies, operations director David Jeannotte reported that one-third of orders were lost within a week of the tariff implementation. The company laid off 140 workers, primarily in Quebec, and closed one regional plant. A March report from the Bank of Montreal projected Quebec's economic growth at 1% for this year, trailing the 2% growth projected for Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Individual residents will notice the effects of this policy shift through their employment and the regional political climate. Factory employees, such as those at The Heico Companies, have already seen job losses or voluntary hour reductions. Meanwhile, French-language cultural advocates, such as Marie-Anne Alepin of the Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal, expressed concern that remaining in Canada under Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government could result in the loss of specific tax funding for French-language media productions. These residents will monitor whether federal government pledges to replace such taxes with direct funding are fulfilled.
The decision sets a precedent for how international trade relations can influence domestic separatist movements. By deferring a referendum, the Parti Quebecois is acknowledging that external geopolitical factors, including U.S. presidential rhetoric regarding annexation and trade irritants, can suppress local independence efforts. This development provides a reprieve for Prime Minister Carney’s administration as it manages separate tensions in Alberta, where a referendum on remaining in Canada is scheduled for mid-October. The next milestone for Quebec will be the provincial election on October 5, which will determine if the Parti Quebecois returns to power for the first time in 12 years.