Republican officials and senior lawmakers have requested increased financial support from President Donald Trump’s political team as outside spending to defend Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate seat is on track to exceed $200 million. Three individuals with knowledge of private conversations said GOP officials have urged the Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. to expand its efforts before the current wave of ad bookings concludes. The request for more funding follows recent reports of leaked audio in which Paxton, a Republican, reportedly criticized the impact of Trump’s midterm convention on poll numbers.
The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), a super PAC for Senate Republicans, increased its investment in the Texas race by $60 million on Wednesday, bringing its total spending in the state to $131 million. MAGA Inc. and its affiliates are expected to spend approximately $45 million on television, digital, and direct mail advertising in Texas through October 12. This represents a $25 million increase from the group's previous $20 million commitment. A Trump operative stated that the group is currently assessing additional spending for the final weeks of the campaign in consultation with the SLF.
National Democrats have recently begun funding their nominee, James Talarico, after previously withholding resources. While most recent public polling has shown Talarico with a narrow lead, an internal poll released Tuesday by the Paxton campaign showed the Republican leading 48% to 45% among likely voters. Some Republicans have expressed concern that the high cost of the Texas race is diverting funds from other competitive Senate contests in Michigan and New Hampshire. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) noted that donors must eventually decide where resources will have the most significant impact given the high costs of the Texas market.
For Republican donors and national strategists, the high cost in Texas presents a trade-off. Every dollar sent to defend a seat in Texas is a dollar not available for other states like Michigan or New Hampshire, where Republicans are attempting to flip Democratic-held seats. GOP operatives in those states have reported that they are running behind or in neck-and-neck races despite their own spending advantages. This dynamic could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate.
What happens next depends on the decisions of MAGA Inc. and the SLF following the October 12 expiration of current ad buys. President Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in San Antonio next Wednesday. Meanwhile, the SLF has established a dedicated "Texas PAC" for these expenditures. The final outcome will be decided by Texas voters in the November general election.