Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Joe Gruters stated on Wednesday, September 23, 2026, that he expects the Republican party to maintain its majorities in both chambers of Congress during the upcoming November midterm elections. Gruters predicted the GOP would secure 220 seats in the House and 53 in the Senate. Citing the quality of candidates, available resources, and the support of President Donald Trump, Gruters told NewsNation’s "The Hill" that voters should "bet on us."
These predictions contrast with assessments Gruters reportedly made in December 2025. According to reports from The Bulwark and social media citations by the Democratic National Committee (DNC), Gruters stated during radio appearances that Republicans were "facing almost certain defeat" and described the upcoming midterms as a "pending, looming disaster." During those earlier appearances, Gruters noted that parties in power usually lose seats in midterm elections.
The current political environment includes several factors that pollsters and analysts say could impact the election. Decision Desk HQ reported on Wednesday that Trump’s average approval rating stood at 37.9 percent, with a 60.7 percent disapproval rating. Additionally, some Republican candidates have recently distanced themselves from the president. Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds removed mentions of Trump from his website, while Senate candidates Mike Rogers of Michigan and Ashley Hinson of Iowa have diverged from Trump regarding the war in Iran.
The outcome of the November midterms will determine which party controls the legislative agenda. The DNC states that 20 million people who utilize Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits would be affected by the Republican refusal to extend those benefits. Furthermore, DNC data from September 24, 2026, indicates that one in five renters are currently unable to pay rent, and mortgage rates have reached their highest point in two years.
The scale of the election involves hundreds of individual races that will decide the balance of power. Current polling from Decision Desk HQ forecasts that Democrats may win majorities in both the House and Senate, contradicting Gruters' prediction. A shift in control would likely lead to changes in how the federal government addresses costs, healthcare, and immigration—areas where recent polling suggests Democrats hold leads in voter trust.
What happens next depends on the results of the Election Day scheduled for November. In the interim, Gruters stated the RNC plans to "barnstorm the country" with rallies featuring President Trump. However, Republican strategists cited by The Bulwark have expressed concern that the current economic environment and the president's messaging on affordability may hinder GOP efforts. Formal results will not be known until after the November 2026 votes are tallied.