The Russian government stated this week that Britain will "pay a higher price" for providing military support to Ukraine, following reports that British-made drones were used to strike targets inside Russian territory. While the Kremlin has frequently issued such warnings, analysts suggest Moscow is balancing a desire to deter Western aid with a necessity to avoid direct military conflict with NATO members.
Katia Glod, deputy head of foreign policy at the New Eurasia Strategies Centre (NEST), told The Independent that these threats are unlikely to result in "kinetic" or traditional military moves against the United Kingdom. Instead, Glod noted that Russia has historically utilized "hybrid attacks"—non-military actions such as cyber-crime, harassment of diplomats, or the recruitment of proxies—to exert pressure without triggering a full-scale war.
The U.K. has previously linked Russia to several incidents on British soil, including the 2006 radioactive poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko and the 2018 Novichok poisoning of Sergei Skripal in Salisbury. More recently, authorities found Russia recruited proxies for a March 2024 arson attack on a Ukrainian-owned warehouse in Leyton. Additionally, the Russian vessel Yantar was detected near critical British underwater infrastructure in 2024 and 2025.
The scale of the "hybrid war" includes thousands of miles of underwater cables and pipelines that the U.K. must monitor, as well as the recruitment of local individuals for domestic sabotage. The source notes that over the past four years, despite repeated threats including the potential use of nuclear weapons, Russia has not taken direct military action against a NATO member. This has led some analysts to conclude that the effectiveness of Russian deterrence is decreasing as threats go unfulfilled.
What happens next: Tensions remain high as the U.K. continues to supply drones and other military equipment to Ukraine. While no specific date for a Russian response has been set, the source indicates that hybrid activities, such as reconnaissance by Russian vessels and aircraft near British territory, are expected to continue or escalate. Future U.K. defense spending and procurement may be influenced by identified gaps in air defense capabilities, though specific legislative deadlines or vote dates were not reported.