San Diego is under a tropical storm watch for only the second time on record as Tropical Storm Rachel approaches a forecast landfall in the northern Baja California Peninsula early Sunday morning, Oct. 11, 2026. The National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center report that the system will bring coastal flooding, high winds, and heavy rainfall across Southern California and the Desert Southwest. A coastal flood warning is in effect from the Malibu coast to San Diego County through Sunday afternoon.
The only previous tropical storm watch issued for this region occurred during Hurricane Hilary in 2023, which was the first year such alerts were authorized for Southern California. While tropical systems historically reached the area, they did not trigger formal watches or warnings prior to the policy change. Current coastal water levels in California are already elevated due to a strong El Niño event in the Pacific, which has previously resulted in home losses and flooding in some areas.
As of Saturday evening, Oct. 10, Rachel maintained maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. Forecasters expect peak wind gusts in San Diego to reach 25 to 40 mph in lower elevations and 50 to 70 mph in the mountains early Sunday. A Level 3 of 4 threat for flooding rainfall covers parts of Southern California, southern Nevada, southwest Utah, and northwest Arizona. San Diego and Las Vegas may receive an inch or more of rain, while the FOX Forecast Center noted that 2 to 3 inches are possible in some Southwest locations.
The scale of the storm's impact extends beyond Southern California, as moisture from Rachel is projected to fuel a fall snowstorm in Montana and northern Wyoming, while also bringing snow to high elevations of the Sierra Nevada. In Northern California, the system is coinciding with Red Flag Warnings due to fire-weather concerns and coastal flooding caused by Kelvin wave activity. Simultaneously, Hurricane Isaias is expected to impact the Gulf Coast, marking one of only three times since 1963 that two tropical systems have affected the Gulf and West coasts at the same time.
Coastal flooding and hazardous surf conditions are expected to persist through next week even as the storm dissipates over the southwestern states. Residents in the watch areas should monitor high tides, which are scheduled to peak between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. PT and again around 10 p.m. PT on Saturday and Sunday. The National Hurricane Center stated that while the storm will weaken as it moves inland, gusty winds will continue to spread across interior Southwest regions and higher terrain through early next week.