Saudi Arabia faces a potential exhaustion of its oil export stocks within days if a major pipeline to the Red Sea remains offline following drone attacks. The East-West pipeline, which transports approximately 4 million barrels per day, was shut down on Friday, Sept. 11, 2026. Industry sources and traders stated on Sunday that the outage threatens to remove roughly 4% of the global oil supply from the market.
The pipeline serves as an alternative route for Saudi exports, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, which has been subject to wartime shutdowns and disruptions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Saudi oil supply reached a three-decade low in August. Production dropped to 6.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, down from 10.9 million bpd in February, as reported by Saudi Arabia to OPEC.
The port of Yanbu currently holds reserves sufficient to maintain exports for five to seven days. While additional stocks are held at the Egyptian ports of Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir, industry sources noted these are not full and will eventually run out. Repair estimates vary; one source indicated the process could take five to six weeks, while another suggested partial operations could resume sooner. The Saudi government media office and energy ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The economic impact extends to federal and financial sectors, as U.S. bond yields have reached their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.95% on Sept. 10, 2026. With OPEC spare capacity forecast to fall to 2.5 million bpd by 2027, there is no immediate replacement for the missing Saudi barrels. If the pipeline remains inactive beyond the window of existing port stocks, market analysts suggest oil prices could retest previous peaks of $138 per barrel.
The next steps depend on official communications regarding a restart date. If no restart occurs before the Yanbu stocks are depleted, observers are watching for potential emergency releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which recently stood at 243.5 million barrels. Markets are also awaiting statements from OPEC+ regarding the possible unwinding of voluntary production cuts to mitigate the supply gap. As of Sept. 13, no specific dates for these actions have been confirmed.