Multiple rounds of storms are expected to bring a risk of flash flooding and severe weather to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions through early Friday morning. The National Weather Service has placed a Level 2 of 5 risk for severe storms across an area stretching from the New York-Vermont border south to northern Virginia.
The weather event follows recent heavy precipitation in the same region, including storms on August 20 that flooded roadways in New York City and New Jersey. Meteorologists reported that a first batch of showers moved through northern New Jersey and southern New York on Thursday morning, with a more organized round expected to develop as a cold front moves from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.
Forecasters indicated that the most intense activity would likely occur from Thursday afternoon through the evening, potentially producing damaging wind gusts, isolated hail, and tornadoes. Rainfall rates are projected to exceed one inch per hour at times. While most areas are expected to receive between 1 and 2 inches of total rainfall, some locations could see as much as 3 to 5 inches if multiple storms pass over the same area.
On a household level, individuals in the risk zones may notice the impact in the form of hazardous travel conditions and the potential for property damage from wind or localized flooding. With rainfall rates reaching over one inch per hour, residents may see rapid accumulation of water on streets and in urban areas, particularly between Thursday afternoon and midnight when the storms are expected to be at their strongest.
The knock-on effects include the potential for saturated ground to increase the flood risk for a subsequent round of storms forecast for Friday. While the Friday storms, stretching from southern New England to Delaware and Maryland, are not currently classified as a significant flood threat, meteorologists noted that any area receiving the projected 3 to 5 inches of rain on Thursday would be more vulnerable to additional precipitation. The severe weather risk is expected to diminish after midnight Thursday, though lighter rain may continue until early Friday morning.