South Carolina Republicans will vote Tuesday in a special Senate primary following the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham. The race features a crowded field of candidates, including Darline Graham, the late senator's sister; U.S. Representatives Russell Fry and Ralph Norman; former Governor Mark Sanford; and businessman Mark Lynch. Because no candidate is expected to secure a majority of the vote in the first round, the contest is likely to proceed to a runoff election.
The primary follows a recent Republican gubernatorial race where President Donald Trump's endorsed candidate, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, lost in a runoff to Alan Wilson. While Trump has endorsed Darline Graham, some local Republican strategists have noted similarities to the governor's race, where a front-runner with presidential backing failed to consolidate the field. Trump is scheduled to hold a tele-rally for Graham on Monday, following several supportive social media posts.
Darline Graham, who has led the South Carolina Commission for the Blind since 2019, has campaigned on domestic issues and the cost of living. During a debate last week, she expressed support for the SAVE America Act while distinguishing her platform from her brother's foreign policy focus. Her opponents have challenged her record; Rep. Fry released an advertisement alleging she increased spending at a government agency, though his campaign did not specify which one. Graham's spokesperson, Abby Zilch, defended her work helping people with disabilities.
The two primary challengers seen as most likely to reach a runoff are Fry and Norman. Fry, elected to the House in 2022, has been described by Trump as "outstanding," though his win would create a vacancy in a narrowly divided U.S. House. Norman, a former member of the House, has a base among the state's most conservative factions and previously endorsed Nikki Haley for president in 2024. A recent straw poll by the South Carolina Republican Party showed Norman and Fry leading Graham.
The race also serves as a measure of President Trump’s influence over the Republican electorate. If a second-place challenger defeats his endorsed candidate in a runoff—as occurred in the June gubernatorial primary—it could signal limits to the impact of presidential endorsements in the state. Furthermore, if Rep. Fry were to win the seat, it would trigger a separate special election for his current House district, potentially impacting the slim Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Voters in South Carolina will notice the immediate impact through a series of elections. Following the primary this Tuesday, a runoff would likely follow if no candidate reaches the 50% threshold. The winner of the Republican nomination will then face the general election. The state party has indicated it will act quickly to address any House vacancies that arise from the contest to ensure continued representation in Congress. Regardless of the winner, the state will transition from decades of seniority under Lindsey Graham to a new representative with a different policy focus.