Decision Desk HQ projects that incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) and former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) will advance to Alaska’s general election for the U.S. Senate. The two candidates emerged as the primary leaders under Alaska’s top-four voting system, which sends the four highest vote-getters to a ranked-choice general election regardless of their political party.
Alaska has historically been a Republican-leaning state, with the GOP holding this Senate seat for several decades. Sullivan has represented the state in the Senate since 2015. Peltola previously won Alaska’s at-large House seat in 2022, becoming the first Alaska Native in Congress, before she was defeated by a Republican challenger in 2024.
The general election matchup occurs as two major organizations, the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ, rate the race as a "toss-up." Fundraising reports show Peltola raised nearly $7 million in the second quarter compared to Sullivan’s $2 million, though Sullivan retained more total cash in his account. Additionally, the Senate Leadership Fund, which is affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), recently added $2 million to its campaign efforts in the state, bringing its total commitment to $17 million.
Individual voters will notice a choice not only between candidates but also regarding the voting process itself. A measure on the fall ballot will ask Alaskans whether they wish to repeal the state's open primary and ranked-choice voting system. This system, which voters originally approved in 2020, is currently used to determine the winners of both state and federal offices. A previous effort to repeal the system was unsuccessful in 2024. Tech billionaire Elon Musk is reportedly spending funds to support the repeal of this voting method.
The knock-on effects of the Senate race and the ballot initiative will influence how future Alaskans choose their representatives. If the repeal measure passes, the state would likely return to a traditional partisan primary system for subsequent cycles. The Senate race is currently projected by Decision Desk HQ to narrowly favor the Democratic candidate. Following the primary, the general election will take place this fall, though the specific date for the final vote and the deadline for the ballot initiative results were not reported.