A survey of 134 higher education enrollment leaders found that 61 percent of colleges have met their enrollment goals for the fall 2026 semester. The data, collected by Niche in July, indicates a disparity between large and small institutions as the start of the academic year approaches.
The findings follow a February survey where enrollment leaders predicted outcomes for the 2026 cycle. The updated report highlights ongoing challenges for smaller institutions, some of which have closed in recent years, prompting questions about the sustainability of those remaining in operation.
According to the survey, 50 percent of colleges with fewer than 2,000 students reported meeting their enrollment targets, compared to the 61 percent average across all respondents. Leaders at these smaller schools were more likely to report a decline in confidence regarding their targets compared to earlier in the admissions cycle. Small institutions reported a median discount rate—the reduction in tuition prices through scholarships and aid—of 63 percent, while institutions with over 5,000 students reported a median discount rate of 34 percent.
The survey identified campus visits as the most effective strategy for securing students, cited by 92 percent of small college respondents. Other top strategies included providing faster and clearer financial aid offers and increasing parent engagement. In contrast, only 22 percent of all respondents listed increased discounting as a primary lever for enrollment, and institutions that relied on this method were less likely to hit their targets than those that did not.
The reliance on high discount rates presents a financial challenge for smaller institutions that have less "wiggle room" in their budgets. While a larger university might absorb a small enrollment shortfall, smaller schools must fill almost every seat to maintain operations. If these institutions meet enrollment goals by increasing discounts too aggressively, they may face revenue shortages that impact their ability to fund academic programs, campus maintenance, or student services. Conversely, some schools may prioritize revenue over enrollment numbers, potentially resulting in smaller class sizes but more stable finances.
What happens next: As the fall 2026 semester begins, institutions will finalize their enrollment and revenue data. The report noted that 30 percent of colleges still struggle with brand differentiation, and 25 percent face issues with yield—the percentage of admitted students who choose to enroll. Schools that increased marketing budgets were more likely to meet their goals, suggesting a shift in spending toward recruitment. Institutions in the Northeast specifically noted that their primary challenge is gaining student attention rather than addressing affordability. Enrollment leaders will likely use this data to adjust recruitment strategies for the 2027 admissions cycle.