Voters across key swing states participated in interviews and focus groups on Tuesday, November 3, to evaluate President Donald Trump’s second term as they cast ballots in the 2026 midterm elections. The assessments, collected through NPR’s "Swing Shift" project and Engagious focus groups, indicate that while some 2024 Trump supporters remain committed to the Republican party, others are moving toward Democratic candidates due to dissatisfaction with the administration's performance.
The shift follows a two-year period marked by the war in Iran and persistent inflation, which several voters cited as primary concerns. A Fox News poll conducted in November 2026 placed the president’s approval rating at 36 percent, a record low for his second term. The same network projected that Democrats were likely to gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
In focus groups involving 12 Georgians who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024, 10 participants said they regret their most recent vote for Trump. Seven of these 12 voters stated the president’s performance would influence them to vote for Democrats this year. On Tuesday evening, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he was switching off Fox News, criticizing the network’s polling as "insulting" and disparaging liberal commentator Jessica Tarlov.
In Pennsylvania, three out of four "Swing Shift" participants who supported Trump in 2024 said they intended to vote for Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro’s re-election. However, some individual preferences remained split. Stephen, a voter in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, stated he would re-elect Republican Representative Brian Fitzpatrick while potentially supporting Democrats or using write-in options for other offices. In Georgia, a voter named Gerald reported voting "Red all the way down the ballot," while another, Wally, cast votes for Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff and gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms.
Voters in swing states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada are the most directly affected as their split tickets and shifting preferences determine the national balance of power. A change in Congressional control could lead to increased oversight and investigations into the executive branch, a prospect Pennsylvania voter John described as a source of "anxiety" due to potential gridlock. Conversely, focus group participants in Georgia suggested that a Democratic-led Congress might serve as a check on the president's policies, which they believe could restore stability to the economy.
The final results may not be known for hours or days following the close of polls on November 3, 2026. While a White House official described the administration as "cautiously optimistic," the move by voters like Quintero in Nevada—who supported Trump in 2024 but planned to vote for Democrats in the midterms—illustrates a potential contraction of the Republican coalition. The outcome will set the legislative precedent for how the U.S. handles the ongoing conflict in Iran and domestic inflation through 2028.