Multiple statewide polls released in September 2026 show Democratic candidate James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race. The most recent Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll, conducted Sept. 19-22, found Talarico with 49% support compared to Paxton's 44%, a five-point margin with over a month remaining before the midterm elections.
The results align with other recent data, including a Marist Poll conducted Sept. 17-20 showing Talarico at 50% and Paxton at 44%. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll conducted Sept. 12-14 showed Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46%. The Cook Political Report has updated the classification of the race to a "toss-up."
Demographic data from the TPOR poll indicates Talarico leads among independent voters (58% to 26%), Latino voters, Black voters, and those under age 55. Paxton maintains leads among white voters and those 55 and older. While Talarico leads in current support, the Marist Poll found that 52% of voters think Paxton will win the Senate race.
For Texas households, the candidates' platforms on financial issues are central to the campaign. According to the Emerson poll, 36% of respondents cited the economy as their primary concern, while 38% of Marist respondents reported their family finances have worsened over the last year. Talarico leads Paxton 49% to 42% on the issue of handling the cost of living and improving financial situations.
The race also serves as a measurement of presidential influence in the state, as 39% of Texas voters in the Marist survey said their congressional vote is primarily a vote against President Donald Trump. Hispanic voters, who supported Trump in 2024, are currently breaking for Talarico by 15 points (54% to 39%), according to Emerson College Polling. The final outcome will be determined on the General Election date of Nov. 3, 2026.