The U.S. Senate race in Texas between Republican Ken Paxton and Democratic State Representative James Talarico is in a tight race as the 2026 midterm Election Day approaches. According to CBS News polling, the contest is "neck-and-neck," with national attention focused on whether Democrats can win a statewide office held by Republicans for decades. The race is part of a Texas midterm cycle projected to cost $1 billion, with more than half of that directed at this Senate seat.
Ken Paxton, who was endorsed by Donald Trump during the primary over incumbent John Cornyn, has centered his campaign on border security and parental rights. His tenure has been marked by several legal matters, including an indictment for securities fraud, a federal corruption investigation that was eventually dropped, and allegations of affairs. James Talarico, a former middle-school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, has focused his platform on economic concerns such as the cost of living, which polling indicates is a primary driver of his support.
Financial and political support has intensified in the final stretch of the campaign. Elon Musk is pouring over $150 million into the race, funds that usually go toward advertising and voter mobilization. Meanwhile, prominent officials are campaigning in the state; Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has appeared with Paxton, while Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX) has campaigned for Talarico, describing him as a unifying candidate.
The scale of spending in this race is historic, with the campaign potentially making it the most expensive non-presidential race in U.S. history. This level of funding, particularly the $150 million from Musk, is being used to influence the turnout game in a state where Democrats show high enthusiasm but Republicans have maintained a consistent voting majority. A victory for Talarico would mark the first Democratic statewide win in Texas in decades.
What happens next depends on voter participation among specific demographics, including a growing Asian American and Latino population. While Talarico is gaining support from voters concerned about prices, Paxton maintains an advantage among those who support Donald Trump’s deportation program. Following the conclusion of the midterm elections, the winner will be seated in the U.S. Senate to represent Texas. Final results will be available as polls close on Election Day, with live coverage provided by national news outlets.