Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Sunday, October 11, that he is uncertain how the ongoing war with Iran will conclude as the conflict approaches its eight-month mark. Speaking on "Fox & Friends Weekend," Bessent said that while the Iranian government is facing severe internal pressure and economic strain, the specific outcome of the war remains unpredictable. He noted that the administration does not anticipate new military strikes against Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.
The war began approximately seven and a half months ago and has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil exports. This closure has contributed to increased energy costs in the United States and has become a primary subject of debate in the current election cycle. President Trump, who initially predicted the conflict would last only a few weeks, has recently suggested the war would end shortly after the midterms but has not detailed the mechanism for that resolution.
Bessent reported that U.S. economic pressure and a naval blockade have significantly impacted the Iranian economy, leading to negative cash flow and the inability of the government to pay its soldiers. He cited a sharp devaluation of the rial, which fell from 600,000 to 2.8 million per dollar over the last 18 months. On the military front, the Department of Defense updated the U.S. death toll in the conflict to 21 service members on Friday, October 9, following the non-combat deaths of Army Maj. Sorffly Davius and an unidentified Navy sailor.
The war also influences international security and diplomatic relations for the U.S. and its allies. The recent Houthi-led attack on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport in Saudi Arabia, which killed a Syrian citizen, has drawn condemnation from the United Nations, the European Union, and several world leaders who characterized it as an attack on civilian infrastructure. Iranian officials, including IRGC advisor Mohammad Reza Naghdi, have warned that any further missile or aircraft attacks against Iran would be met with a "crushing response," raising concerns about a potential escalation that could further destabilize regional transport and energy networks.
What happens next depends largely on the outcome of the November 3 midterm elections and the enforcement of U.S. sanctions. While the administration has stated there will be no new strikes before the vote, Iranian officials have suggested they may review their nuclear doctrine and continue to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. Domestically, voters will decide on congressional representatives as Democrats and Republicans continue to debate the necessity and cost of the war. U.S. weapons stockpiles and the financial strain on regional allies remain ongoing concerns for the Defense and Treasury departments.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that serves as a primary route for world oil supplies. Farsi is the official language of Iran. Mazut is a heavy, low-quality fuel oil used in power plants and similar applications. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the world's nuclear watchdog under the United Nations.