Tropical Storm Cristobal dissipated over the North Atlantic Ocean on Thursday, marking the end of the season’s third named storm. Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center are now monitoring two additional areas in the tropical Atlantic that have a medium chance of developing into tropical depressions within the next week.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has recorded a lower level of activity compared to historical averages, which forecasters attribute to the influence of El Niño. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the season through August 11 was the least active start since 2009, with only two prior tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, forming near the U.S. Gulf Coast.
The National Hurricane Center reported a 40% chance that a system in the tropical Atlantic could become a tropical depression by late this week. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, noted that record-strong wind shear—a change in wind speed or direction at different altitudes—is currently suppressing storm formation. If a new tropical storm forms, it will be named Dolly.
For an individual household, this lower activity means a reduced statistical probability of experiencing a major hurricane during the peak months of mid-August to mid-October. However, meteorologists maintain that storms can still form if they overcome atmospheric wind shear. A tropical depression could form as early as Thursday, potentially reaching the eastern Caribbean by Friday, though its chances of strengthening are expected to decrease as it moves into areas with higher wind shear.
The reduced activity sets a potential precedent, as 2026 could become the first year since 2013 to conclude without a major hurricane. NOAA recently increased its confidence in a below-average season from 55% to 75%. While the tropics typically enter their busiest period in mid-August, the growth of El Niño into a "Super El Niño" may continue to provide the wind shear necessary to tear storms apart or prevent their formation entirely through the remainder of the season.
The next updates regarding these systems are expected from the National Hurricane Center as the potential depression tracks west toward the Caribbean. The Atlantic hurricane season officially continues through November, though most activity is concentrated in the next two months.