Tropical Storm Moke is moving toward Hawaii, marking the second time in two weeks that the state has been approached by an intensifying tropical cyclone. As of 5 a.m. ET Saturday, the storm was located 545 miles southeast of Hilo with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, moving west-northwest at 8 mph. Forecasters expect the center of Moke to pass south of the Big Island, though the system is likely to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to areas still recovering from Hurricane Lala.
The recent increase in storm activity near Hawaii is linked to the development of a "Super El Niño," a climate pattern characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. In typical years, cooler waters and high-altitude winds near the islands act as a barrier that weakens approaching storms. However, El Niño has raised water temperatures to the east, southeast, and south of Hawaii, while also increasing the total number of storms forming in the Eastern and Central Tropical Pacific.
This weather pattern follows Hurricane Lala, a Category 1 storm that passed south of the Big Island on August 17. Lala produced more than 3 feet of rain in certain windward areas, resulting in flash flooding, landslides, and at least one death. While Hawaii has not experienced a direct hurricane landfall since 1992, Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at the National Weather Service, noted that Moke represents twice the typical annual frequency of storms passing within 300 nautical miles of the state.
A person living on the windward side of the Big Island would notice these effects through continued road closures, potential power outages, and the risk of further landslides on already saturated ground. While an average year sees only one storm pass within 300 nautical miles of the state, Rosencrans stated that a third storm is probable later this season. The increased storm frequency in the Pacific has a notable secondary effect on the Atlantic hurricane season, where El Niño-driven upper-level winds have kept activity quiet for weeks.
What happens next depends on atmospheric steering currents, which Rosencrans noted could change to provide the state a reprieve. However, as of August 22, Tropical Storm Moke continues its approach from the southeast. Residents in the path of the storm are monitoring local forecasts as the system nears the islands. No specific dates for a third projected storm have been determined, but the hurricane season remains active.