James Blair, a top political adviser to President Donald Trump, stated on Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026, that he is "cautiously optimistic" Republicans can maintain control of both chambers of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. Speaking on NBC News’s "Here’s the Scoop: Election Edition" podcast, Blair acknowledged that while he would not predict specific seat counts, he believes there is a path for the party to "defy history." Historically, the party in control of the White House often loses congressional seats during midterm cycles.
Blair, who served as White House deputy chief of staff until April 2026, currently leads MAGA Inc., a Trump-aligned super PAC. His comments come as the Republican Party faces recent polling showing voter dissatisfaction with the economy and the ongoing war with Iran. A Quinnipiac University poll released on Friday, Sept. 11, indicated that voters currently prefer Democrats to regain House control. Additionally, an NBC News Decision Desk Poll from September 2026 showed Trump’s job approval at 36%, with approval for his handling of the Iran war at 31%.
During the interview, Blair addressed economic concerns by attributing current inflation to the policies of former President Joe Biden. In February 2025, inflation was 2.8%, but rose to 3.4% by August 2026, which the source notes was helped by an energy crisis from the Iran war and the administration's tariff regime. Regarding the conflict with Iran, Blair suggested voter concern is decreasing as the situation stabilizes. The president told Republicans in Dallas on Wednesday that he expects the war to conclude after Election Day.
The Republican strategy for the midterms includes a focus on turning out low-propensity voters, particularly men who voted in the 2024 presidential election but typically do not participate in midterms. Trump emphasized the goal of turning out GOP voters during a Republican National Committee convention in Dallas on Thursday, Sept. 10, where he urged supporters to pledge their votes. Blair also noted that while he expects Latino voters to overperform for Republicans compared to 2018 and 2022, he does not expect them to reach the record numbers seen in 2024.
The outcome of the 2026 midterms will determine which party sets the legislative agenda for the final two years of the Trump administration. If Republicans retain control, they can continue to advance the president’s platform; if Democrats win either chamber, it could lead to legislative gridlock or increased oversight of executive actions, such as the administration's plan to halve the FEMA workforce, which a judge recently ruled illegal.
The election results could affect groups like Latino voters in districts such as Texas's 28th, 34th, and 35th, where redrawn maps have made these areas targets for both parties. The scale of the political spending involved is significant, with Trump reporting $850 million raised for midterm efforts and the MAGA Inc. super PAC holding a war chest of over $400 million as of July 2026. This translates to hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising and ground operations intended to influence voter turnout, with Trump stating he plans to campaign in 35 key races.
Voters will make these decisions on Election Day in November 2026. Following the election, the new Congress will be seated in January 2027.