President Donald Trump’s public approval rating reached 32% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday, representing a one-point increase from a record low recorded the previous week. The survey, conducted among 1,679 U.S. adults between Oct. 22 and Oct. 26, found that 66% of respondents disagreed with the president’s job performance. A separate NPR/PBS News/Marist poll of registered voters conducted Oct. 19-20 found a 38% approval rating, with 61% disapproving.
The surveys come amid a period of rising living costs, which 73% of voters in the Reuters/Ipsos poll said was heading in the "wrong direction." Public sentiment has been influenced by a military conflict with Iran that began on Feb. 28, leading to increased gasoline prices, and trade disputes with allies such as Canada. Prior to the Iran conflict, poll respondents generally favored Republicans over Democrats on economic management; however, the latest Reuters/Ipsos data shows 37% favor the Democratic approach compared to 33% for Republicans.
Ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, Democrats hold a lead on the generic congressional ballot, which measures which party voters prefer to control Congress. Registered voters in the Reuters/Ipsos poll favored Democrats over Republicans by 47% to 36%. When factoring in the leanings of undecided voters, the gap was 50% to 41%. The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll showed a 10-point advantage for Democrats among registered voters. Despite this, some voters expressed reservations about the Democratic Party; one independent respondent noted a preference for Republicans due to concerns over democratic socialism.
The impact is most visible in the financial sentiment of individual households. Approximately one-third of respondents in the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll reported experiencing financial hardship in the past year, and 4 in 10 said their personal finances had worsened. This perception is tied to the cost of living, which was named the top priority by 31% of likely voters. For these households, the outcome of the election may determine the status of future fiscal policies, such as the $5,000 dividend Trump pledged to send to every U.S. adult if Republicans retain control of both chambers.
The data also reveals a significant enthusiasm gap that could influence voter turnout on Nov. 3. According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 46% of Democrats are "very enthusiastic" about voting, compared to 30% of Republicans. The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found a similar gap among likely voters, with 71% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans reporting high enthusiasm. However, many Democratic voters remain skeptical of their party’s prospects; only 81% of Democratic likely voters expect their party to win, whereas 84% of Republicans believe their party will prevail. Following the election, the seated Congress will decide the direction of U.S. foreign policy toward Iran and Ukraine, as well as domestic tax and border policies.
What happens next: Voters will cast ballots in the midterm elections on Tuesday, Nov. 3. The results will confirm whether Democrats flip the 30 or more seats historically associated with their current polling lead, or if Republican structural advantages and independent concerns over Democratic policy shifts preserve the current majorities.