President Trump cited a new Census Bureau report on Tuesday to claim that more than 24,000 noncitizens voted illegally in the 2020 presidential election. The seven-page analysis, titled "Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election, A Beginning Analysis," is based on 128 million voter records and suggests the final number of noncitizen votes could increase as 32 million additional records are reviewed.
The report was not authored by career civil servants at the Census Bureau. According to an anonymous bureau employee, the team responsible for the analysis included individuals affiliated with the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), a think tank founded by officials from Trump’s first administration. Spokespeople for the Census Bureau, the White House, and AFPI did not respond to requests for comment, though AFPI posted on social media that the analysis helps restore election confidence through transparency.
Election experts and former Census Bureau employees have questioned the report's methodology and lack of an official author. David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, stated that Census data cannot be reliably matched to voter data, while Michael Morse of the University of Pennsylvania Law School noted that the lack of unique identifiers in voter records often leads to matching errors. Former bureau economist Misty Heggeness expressed concern over the absence of standard rigor and testing usually required for official statistical reports.
For the average citizen, this report does not change current voting rights or procedures, but it signals a shift in how federal agencies like the Census Bureau—which oversees the $20 billion decennial census—operate. Former bureau officials like Amy O'Hara warn that using the agency to publish statistics on "election crime" could damage public trust. This could lead to lower participation rates in the 2030 census, potentially affecting the accuracy of population counts used to distribute federal funding and determine congressional representation for every household in the country.
The report follows other recent administration efforts to quantify noncitizen voting, including a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) claim in July that 250,000 noncitizens were on voter rolls in four states. While states like California and Nevada have disputed those figures, the administration is now proposing major changes to the 2030 census, including a potential citizenship question. The Census Bureau has indicated that more analyses are forthcoming, though no specific release dates for the final report on the remaining 32 million voter records have been announced.