President Donald Trump publicized a seven-page Census Bureau report this week that claims more than 24,000 noncitizens voted in the 2020 presidential election. The president cited the document to support his ongoing assertion that the 2020 election results were invalid, while election law experts and data analysts have questioned the report's methodology and findings.
The report, which NPR identified as being authored by individuals affiliated with the America First Policy Institute rather than career civil servants, arrives as the administration seeks Senate passage of the SAVE America Act. This follows several legal challenges where federal courts have blocked executive orders intended to implement nationwide voter ID requirements and restrict mail-in ballots.
According to the president’s Truth Social post, an analysis of 128 million voter records identified 24,000 instances of noncitizen voting, a figure he stated would increase as more records are processed. However, David Becker of the Center for Election Innovation and Research stated that the Census Bureau lacks unique matching identifiers to reliably compare its data to public voter records. Experts also noted that the 2020 Census did not collect citizenship status information, relying instead on modeled population estimates.
For millions of Americans who utilize mail-in voting, a group that includes students, rural residents, and people with disabilities, the proposed restrictions could change how they cast their ballots in upcoming midterm elections. Attorneys general from nearly two dozen states have warned the Supreme Court that implementing these transformative changes close to an election could result in disenfranchisement due to a high risk of administrative error and a narrow window for voters to correct their status.
The legal strategy now hinges on whether the Supreme Court will intervene. Attorney General Todd Blanche has indicated that the administration may ask the justices to review recent lower court losses, where the Justice Department has failed in more than 20 lawsuits seeking to collect detailed voter information from states. Currently, the federal courts maintain blocks on executive orders for a national eligibility list, and no specific date has been set for a Supreme Court hearing on these matters. The next major milestone will be the Senate's consideration of the SAVE America Act.