Recent primary election results and polling data indicate a shift in Donald Trump’s influence within the Republican Party. Several Trump-endorsed candidates for both gubernatorial and congressional seats have lost their primary races in the summer of 2026, while national polls show a decline in the president’s approval ratings across various demographics.
The trend follows a series of setbacks for the administration, including an ongoing conflict in Iran now entering its sixth month and the failure to pass a voter fraud bill in the Republican-controlled Senate. In the primary season, candidates backed by Trump were defeated in states including Minnesota, Michigan, Tennessee, Iowa, Georgia, and South Carolina.
In Tennessee, Trump-endorsed Rep. Andy Ogles lost his primary by 7 points despite a personal livestream appearance by the president. In Minnesota, Mike Lindell lost his gubernatorial primary, and in Iowa, Rep. Randy Feenstra lost his bid for governor in June. Polling data from The Economist and YouGov shows Trump with a net approval rating of minus-25 points, while a RealClearPolitics average indicates that 59% of voters disapprove of his performance.
The political environment is also being shaped by economic factors and foreign policy. Voters have expressed concern over gas prices and the war in Iran, with Fox polling showing 57% disapproval of the president’s handling of immigration and negative marks on the economy. These sentiments contribute to projections by the Kalshi prediction market, which as of August 13 gave Democrats an 85% chance of winning the House of Representatives, potentially moving Republican lawmakers into the minority.
A shift in House control would significantly change the day-to-day operations of the federal government. A Democratic majority would likely initiate subpoenas and investigations into the president’s personal wealth and move to reverse current administration policies. These institutional changes would likely begin after the new Congress is seated in January 2027, following the November 2026 midterm elections. The current primary defeats suggest that future Republican leadership may face pressure to distance themselves from the current administration's platform to maintain viability in general elections.