President Donald Trump enters the final phase of the midterm election season following a series of primary losses for his endorsed candidates. Recent results show that Trump-backed picks for governor in four states failed to secure Republican nominations, including Mike Lindell in Minnesota. Additionally, House candidates Amir Hassan in Michigan and Rep. Andy Ogles in Tennessee lost their respective primary contests this month despite the president's public support.
The recent outcomes contrast with the 2022 election cycle, where a Trump endorsement was widely seen as a near-guarantee of primary victory. While the president continues to maintain a high overall success rate, recent losses have occurred in competitive races where his endorsed candidates faced challenges related to personal controversies, local political dynamics, or significant spending by opponents. In Georgia, for instance, Trump-aligned Rick Jackson lost to Burt Jones after Jackson spent over $100 million of his own money on the race.
Internal assessments of Trump’s influence vary. A White House official reported a 98 percent success rate, citing 233 wins out of 238 endorsements, though these figures include many unopposed incumbents. Conversely, Republican donors speaking anonymously stated that the president’s influence has limits when candidates possess significant "baggage" or when his focus on national issues, such as the Iran war, fails to align with the local concerns of gubernatorial voters. In South Carolina, Trump issued a rare double endorsement for governor after his initial pick, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, lost momentum to Attorney General Alan Wilson.
For individual voters and local party organizations, these results indicate that local factors—such as a candidate's legislative record or personal conduct—are weighing more heavily against national endorsements. For example, Rep. Andy Ogles’ loss in Tennessee followed an FBI investigation into campaign finance records and social media controversies. This shift suggests that voters may prioritize local vetting over national alignment, a change that could impact how much influence federal figures exert over state-level governance and House delegations.
The next tests for this trend occur later this month. In Florida, Trump has endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds for governor, a race that will test his influence in a high-profile state. In South Carolina, the Senate runoff between Sen. Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman will serve as a barometer for whether Trump’s support can overcome established local political bases. These results will set the precedent for the GOP's strategy heading into the general election and may dictate how future candidates seek or weigh the value of a presidential endorsement.
What happens next: Primary voters in Florida will head to the polls next week to decide the gubernatorial race involving Rep. Byron Donalds. Later this month, South Carolina will hold a runoff election for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the late Lindsey Graham. Results from these contests, alongside upcoming votes in Oklahoma and Wyoming, will finalize the Republican slate for the November midterms.