President Donald Trump stated on Monday that he may issue an endorsement in Israel’s upcoming October election as he continues to promote a peace plan for Gaza. In an interview with Fox News, Trump said it was "appropriate" to remain neutral regarding the October 27 vote but noted he could still choose to support a candidate. The comments coincided with a visit to Jerusalem by Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and envoy, who met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss a timeline for the disarmament of Hamas.
The proposed peace plan requires the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hamas to surrender its weapons and tunnel network within a 30- to 90-day period, while Israel would carry out a reciprocal withdrawal from Gaza. Netanyahu has expressed reservations about the plan, stating that Israeli troops will only withdraw once Hamas is fully disarmed. Following Kushner's visit, Netanyahu’s office indicated that Israel would participate in a working group focused on the disarmament and demilitarization of Gaza.
Public opinion polls in Israel suggest a divided electorate and low confidence in Trump's priorities regarding Israeli security. A July survey by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 28 percent of Israelis believe Trump prioritizes their country's security, while a poll by the Jewish People’s Policy Institute (JPPI) showed only seven percent of respondents had "a great deal of confidence" in him. Netanyahu’s Likud party currently trails the Yashar party, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, in recent polling.
The scale of the proposed peace plan involves the total disarmament of Hamas, including every light and heavy weapon and the entirety of its tunnel infrastructure. For residents of Gaza, the successful implementation of this plan would determine the timing of the IDF’s withdrawal and the end of two years of active warfare that has resulted in tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths. If Netanyahu yields to U.S. pressure to accept the 30- to 90-day disarmament timeline, he faces potential political consequences from his domestic base, which emphasizes absolute security and Hamas's total removal from governance.
What happens next depends on the findings of the newly announced working group on disarmament and the voter turnout on October 27. Analysts suggest a Trump endorsement could influence between three to six seats in the Israeli Knesset (parliament) by motivating discouraged voters within Netanyahu's base. However, the Israeli government has requested the High Court to delay any commission of inquiry into the failures of October 7 until after the election, meaning voters will cast ballots before a formal independent investigation is completed. Furthermore, the outcome will influence whether the Israeli judiciary retains its current level of independence, a key concern for voters in the upcoming cycle.