Democratic state lawmaker Josh Turek and Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson are campaigning in the final hours of a closely contested Iowa Senate race. Turek is seeking the seat left open by the retirement of Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, framing his candidacy as an opportunity for "generational change." Hinson, currently representing Iowa in the U.S. House, is pitching herself as a "common-sense conservative" and a "minivan-driving mom" who will work for the state regardless of who holds the presidency.
The race occurs as Iowa has shifted from its former status as a battleground state to one that supported Donald Trump by double digits in 2024. Despite this shift, recent prediction market data from Kalshi showed a narrow margin, with Turek at 52% and Hinson at 48%. Turek has aligned his campaign with the legacy of former Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, who represented Iowa for three decades and has campaigned alongside Turek.
Turek, a former Paralympic wheelchair basketball player, has focused his closing message on economic and health concerns, specifically high gas and diesel prices, high cancer rates, and water quality issues. He stated he would be willing to work with Trump on specific proposals such as eliminating taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security. Hinson, who previously pledged to be a "top ally" to Trump, has recently adjusted her message to state she will push back on the former president when necessary, specifically calling for an end to the war in Iran to lower energy costs.
Iowans will notice the direct impact of this race in their federal representation starting in January. Depending on the winner, voters could see different approaches to federal policy regarding tariffs, private equity in housing, and healthcare funding. Turek argues that current federal policies have contributed to a contracting state economy and a "healthcare and cancer crisis," while Hinson frames her potential service as a check on executive power, promising to be "pro-Iowa" regardless of the party in the White House.
The election results will also set a precedent for whether Democrats can reclaim seats in states that have recently trended Republican. If Turek wins, it may signal a shift in the political alignment of the Midwest; if Hinson wins, it reinforces the state's current Republican lean. Following the close of polls, officials will begin the certification process. The winner is scheduled to be sworn into the U.S. Senate in January.
Turek reported that he believes Iowans are "hurting more than almost any other state" due to the war in Iran and federal tariffs. Hinson has countered by characterizing Turek as "too liberal" for the state while positioning herself as a fighter for Iowa's specific interests. As of the final days of the campaign, both candidates were focused on mobilizing volunteers for door-knocking efforts across the state.