Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined on Friday following reports of new attacks on vessels and a U.S. pledge to maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) reported that two state-owned oil tankers were attacked Thursday evening, an action they attributed to Iran. In response, U.S. officials stated they would implement new economic measures next week to further isolate the Iranian economy as the regional conflict continues.
The current situation follows the breakdown of a June ceasefire agreement and a lack of progress in recent peace talks. Iran has stated it will not allow the waterway to reopen until economic sanctions are lifted and frozen assets are released. On Thursday, an Iranian parliamentary committee approved a plan to ban the transit of ships and equipment from countries it considers hostile, specifically naming the United States and Israel.
According to ship-tracking data from Kpler, only nine vessels transited the strait on Thursday, a decrease from the August average of 12 per day. This is a significant decline from the more than 130 ships that passed through the waterway daily before the war began in February. While some ships may transit with transponders turned off, tracking data showed no visible crossings early Friday morning.
The blockade and transit restrictions affect specific international groups, including Asian refineries that have had to shift their purchasing to U.S. crude to ensure future supplies. Indian importers are also affected, as the country’s reliance on Russian crude reached record levels in July due to the volatility in the Gulf. Inside Iran, the U.S. naval blockade and economic sanctions have cut off the primary source of hard currency, impacting the national economy and the day-to-day purchasing power of its citizens. The U.S. Treasury Department has indicated that further measures next week will target the "procurement of weapons" and increase "economic isolation" to a level described as historically high.
The knock-on effects extend to regional stability and global economic growth. Reports of a drone attack by Iran-backed Houthis on a Saudi Aramco refinery on Thursday have increased concerns of a wider conflict involving more Middle Eastern nations. Global economists have warned that if the war does not end, the resulting supply shocks could trigger a recession in several regions. U.S. President Donald Trump faces domestic political pressure regarding high fuel prices ahead of the November midterm elections. Next steps include the announcement of new U.S. economic measures scheduled for the coming week and the potential for further military strikes if diplomatic negotiations remain stalled.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the Navy can maintain the blockade indefinitely by rotating ships. Meanwhile, Tehran maintains that it will continue to restrict access to the strait until its economic conditions are met. Analysts suggest that Iran’s control over the waterway remains its primary leverage in ongoing negotiations.