The Trump administration reported progress this week in facilitating the movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz despite a significant reduction in total maritime traffic since February. U.S. officials told Axios that approximately 40 tankers moved through a southern channel off the coast of Oman on Friday night, delivering roughly 16 million barrels of oil to global markets. President Trump stated on Friday that the U.S. has "total control" of the region and expressed confidence in the military's ability to secure the waterway.
The Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed since late February due to ongoing regional conflict. While the U.S. has increased its naval presence to protect shipping, analysts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted that current transit levels remain a fraction of pre-war volume. In February, an average of 74 ships passed through the strait daily; RUSI researcher Petras Katinas reported that only three or four vessels were passing daily earlier this month.
The Pentagon's efforts to secure the channel involve approximately 20 Navy warships, including two aircraft carrier strike groups. These forces are tasked with intercepting drones and missiles, though researchers note that the operation carries risks of provoking direct fire from Iran. Despite the recent increase in reported transits, Rosemary Kelanic of Defense Priorities said global oil inventories continue to face a deficit as total output from the strait remains below pre-war levels.
The scale of the military commitment involves thousands of sailors and significant hardware, including the USS Abraham Lincoln, which recently returned to port following a deployment that raised concerns about crew mental health and ship conditions. If the U.S. operation remains limited, it may avoid major Iranian retaliation but fail to stabilize global markets. Conversely, a larger operation designed to reach pre-war levels of 70-plus daily transits could lead to open provocation, according to CSIS analysts.
What happens next depends on the administration's stated shift away from diplomacy. This week, President Trump announced an "economic D-Day" and a "crushing" operation intended to cripple Iran while moving away from diplomatic channels. Market analysts suggested these remarks contributed to late-week price increases as investors anticipated a longer conflict. Specific dates for new military maneuvers or the next phase of the shipping operation have not been reported.