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WMO Report Finds Global Water Cycle Becoming More Erratic and Unpredictable

A WMO report finds 42% of the world had freshwater levels below historical norms in 2025 as the global water cycle becomes increasingly unpredictable.

Published September 17, 2026 at 12:01 AM EDT

The short answer

A WMO report finds 42% of the world had freshwater levels below historical norms in 2025 as the global water cycle becomes increasingly unpredictable. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its annual State of Global Water Resources Report on Thursday, September 17, 2026, finding that the global water cycle has become increasingly erratic.

WMO Report Finds Global Water Cycle Becoming More Erratic and Unpredictable

The Facts

Who
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, and Director of Hydrology Wayne Jenkinson.
What
State of Global Water Resources Report released by the World Meteorological Organization.
When
Thursday, September 17, 2026
Where
Global report covering more than 60 countries.
Why
To document the declining state of global freshwater storage, including rivers, groundwater, and glaciers, and to warn of increasing extreme weather events.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its annual State of Global Water Resources Report on Thursday, September 17, 2026, finding that the global water cycle has become increasingly erratic. The analysis, which covers data from 2025, indicates that total freshwater stored in rivers, lakes, aquifers, ice, and soil is in decline, with 42% of the world experiencing storage levels below historical norms last year.

The report identifies fossil fuel pollution as a driver behind these shifts, which include shrinking rivers, disappearing glaciers, and rapid swings between floods and droughts. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that the planet has experienced five consecutive years of record-breaking hydrological extremes, leaving affected regions with little time to recover between events.

According to the report, 2025 was one of the driest years for global rivers in the past 35 years. Regions with below-average river flows included much of North America, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia, and parts of South America. Additionally, nearly two-thirds of monitored groundwater wells showed conditions outside historical norms, with a growing deficit compared to 2024.

Frozen regions also showed significant changes, as glaciers worldwide lost mass for the fourth consecutive year. Between 2023 and 2025, glaciers shed enough water to fill approximately 560 million Olympic-sized swimming pools. WMO officials described these reserves as a "savings account" that typically buffers against dry seasons, warning that this buffer is now being depleted.

The scale of the impact is global, with 42% of the Earth's land surface seeing freshwater storage levels drop below historical averages in 2025. Households and businesses in regions such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe face increased water insecurity due to severe droughts, while those in South and Southeast Asia are experiencing more intense monsoon rains and cyclones. These changes translate to a more fragile environment where a single dry season can more easily escalate into a water crisis because the natural "buffer" of ice and groundwater is decreasing.

The WMO warned that the strengthening El Niño weather pattern will further increase the risk of both drought and flooding throughout the remainder of 2026. While the report utilized data from more than 60 countries, officials noted significant data gaps in Africa and Asia, where weather extremes are often most severe. Closing these monitoring gaps is a stated priority for the WMO to improve future water management and disaster preparation.

Timeline of what happened

Key dates and decisions, in the order they occurred.

  1. January 1, 2016

    Start of global decline in water stored on land

  2. June 1, 2025

    Torrential rains cause damage in Mokwa, Nigeria

  3. July 4, 2025

    Catastrophic flooding occurs in Texas Hill Country

  4. October 30, 2025

    Hurricane Melissa causes deaths and damage in the Caribbean

  5. September 17, 2026

    WMO publishes State of Global Water Resources Report

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Questions readers ask

What happened: WMO Report Finds Global Water Cycle Becoming More Erratic and Unpredictable?

State of Global Water Resources Report released by the World Meteorological Organization.

Who is involved?

World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, and Director of Hydrology Wayne Jenkinson.

When did this happen?

Thursday, September 17, 2026

Where did this happen?

Global report covering more than 60 countries.

Why does this matter?

To document the declining state of global freshwater storage, including rivers, groundwater, and glaciers, and to warn of increasing extreme weather events.