Energy experts stated that U.S. gasoline prices may fall below $4 a gallon in the coming days, marking the first time prices would reach that level since July. Patrick De Haan, a petroleum expert at GasBuddy, reported that the national average for gasoline was $4.06 a gallon on a recent Thursday and predicted it would drop below the $4 threshold by the following week.
Analysts attributed the recent decline in fuel costs to several geopolitical and economic factors. De Haan noted that market participants expected the U.S. midterm elections to increase pressure on the Trump administration to reach a peace deal regarding the conflict in Iran. Additionally, oil tanker traffic has increased through the Strait of Hormuz, which has eased constraints on the global oil supply.
Market benchmarks reflected this downward trend as Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since September, trading at $97.44. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, was priced at $90.42 a barrel. Seasonal factors have also influenced the market, as demand typically decreases in the fall following the conclusion of summer travel, and refineries have begun producing winter-blend gasoline, which is less expensive to manufacture.
The scale of the decline extends to commercial sectors as well. De Haan predicted that diesel prices, which impact the cost of shipping goods and operating heavy machinery, could fall below $6 a gallon by Thanksgiving. To address fuel costs, the Trump administration has implemented several policy measures, including waiving the Jones Act—a law requiring goods shipped between U.S. ports to be carried on U.S.-built and crewed vessels—and allowing Russian diesel imports. The administration also expanded access to red-dyed diesel, which is typically tax-free and reserved for off-road use.
These changes in the energy market are closely tied to the outcome of the midterm elections and the ongoing conflict in Iran. While prices have trended downward due to optimism regarding a potential peace deal, the long-term trajectory depends on whether these diplomatic expectations are met. What happens next depends on the retail response to falling wholesale costs; Kloza expects the national average to sink below $4 within 10 days of his report, while De Haan targets the same threshold by the end of the upcoming week.