A new opinion poll published by Lord Ashcroft on Sunday, November 8, 2026, shows Reform UK trailing the Conservative Party by eight percentage points. The survey of 5,253 adults, conducted between October 29 and November 2, placed the Labour Party at 31 percent, followed by the Conservatives at 26 percent and Reform UK at 18 percent.
The results follow a period in which Reform UK led in polling for more than a year before Andy Burnham became Prime Minister. According to the report, the party has recently faced controversy over a £5 million donation from cryptocurrency billionaire Christopher Harborne that is under investigation by Parliament’s standards commissioner, as well as two undercover journalistic investigations.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage challenged the accuracy of the data on social media, labeling the poll "totally dishonest" and noting that Lord Ashcroft is a Conservative donor who is not a member of the British Polling Council. Mr. Farage cited a May poll that he said underestimated his party's eventual local election performance. Lord Ashcroft responded by stating that general election polling differs from local election metrics and noted that Mr. Farage had not previously criticized polls that favored Reform UK.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has seen a rise in polling following recent appearances at Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) and a pledge to cut inheritance tax. Lord Ashcroft reported that voters described Ms. Badenoch as "strong" and "articulate," while some former Reform UK supporters expressed concerns that Mr. Farage has become part of the "Establishment."
The scale of this shift is reflected in the 5,253 adults surveyed. For the individual voter, these trends indicate which party platforms—such as the Conservatives' proposed inheritance tax cuts—are gaining traction. If these numbers hold, it could influence the legislative priorities in Parliament, as the Conservative Party attempts to regain its position as the primary opposition to the Labour Party, which currently holds a five-point lead over the Tories.
The legal and regulatory focus now moves to the Parliament’s standards commissioner, who is investigating the £5 million gift to Mr. Farage. Mr. Farage suggested on Sunday that he believes the commissioner will find against him. Additionally, the critique of polling standards raised by Mr. Farage highlights ongoing debates regarding the transparency of political data providers. The next steps involve the conclusion of the standards investigation and further polling to determine if Ms. Badenoch's momentum continues.